The end is nigh for TikTok…or is it? The ultra-popular social media platform stands on the precipice of a US ban that would wipe it from app stores and quickly make it inoperable on iPhones and Androids. 150 million users could lose access to audiences around the world and five million TikTok businesses could vaporize in an instant.
But it’s not that cut and dried. Last-minute saviors could arise, even in the form of those who first sought to banish the Chinese-owned app.
A little background here before we dive into the minute-by-minute machinations that hold TikTok’s future in the balance.
TikTok is a nearly decade-old social media platform that, in the US, started its life as Music.ly and was primarily a lip-syncing app (people made videos dancing and lip-syncing to their favorite pop songs). The app was bought by ByteDance, a Chinese software company, which quickly combined it with its own social media app and renamed it TikTok (in China, the app is called Douyin).
Not many people initially knew or cared about TikTok besides the teens who had previously used Music.ly. The Pandemic changed all that, though, as families were forced indoors and, with little else to do, turned to TikTok as both a creative outlet and digital community builder. The app’s popularity exploded, and it became a cultural phenomenon.
It was also around this time that US relations with China soured, and concerns about cyber espionage grew. A Chinese-owned app in the hands of virtually every American suddenly seemed like a very bad idea. At issue was the Chinese government’s open access to all technology and data of any company operating within its borders.
Then President Donald ***** signed an executive order in 2020 to ban TikTok in the US. The company responded by moving all data and operations related to the US version of the app inside the US. Oracle would host the data, and US-based employees would manage virtually everything else.
That was not enough, though, and eventually, President Joe ***** signed a law setting a timeline to force TikTok to sell by January 19, 2025, or be banned in the US.
Now, the final hours are winding down, but here’s where things get interesting. We’re about to give you the latest on TikTok’s fate in the US. Stick with this live blog for all the breaking developments.
***** as rescuer?
Because TikTok’s ban is set to take effect on January 19th, the final day of President Joe *****’s term and a day before President ***** takes office, there’s been some confusion (and maybe concern) about which US leader would have the final say.
***** has recently signaled he might be in favor of keeping TikTok alive in the US. ***** hasn’t said much recently about the issue, but now his administration is signaling, if not a change of heart, an interest in a slightly different ban scenario.
According to a report on NBC News, *****’s office might no longer want TikTok to go dark on the 19th. There may be an interest in deferring the final decision to ***** when he takes office.
The report, however, then all but scuttles that hope, quoting one official who told them, “We are not considering deferring enforcement…Statutorily, we don’t believe we have the authority to do that.”
In other words, no one knows what’s going to happen on Sunday.
#TikTokRefugees
TikTok refugees are already planting flags on what they think are safer shores. Many have joined RedNote, another Chinese app that shares many of TikTok’s features, but adds in Chinese language controls and content for good measure.
I wrote about the phenomenon here and have since counseled many that, while this app looks like fun, it has even less chance of surviving than TikTok. As a true Chinese app, it has none of TikTok’s US data protections. The same goes for Lemon8, which is also owned by TikTok but does not necessarily run in the US.
For the moment, TikTokers seems reluctant to move over to US-based options like Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts. They may soon have no choice, though.
Things we can’t control
I’ve spent the past few weeks trying to get someone at TikTok to go on the record about what’s about to happen and how the US-based team is preparing. No one is ready to talk.
I did, however, attend a TikTok cocktail party after a TikTok 5th annual What’s Next Trend Report session at CES 2025. As I hobnobbed with various TikTok execs, they all expressed the same mood: this is beyond our control. They were cheerful, weirdly positive, and focused on the future, as uncertain as it is.
Most like to focus on the current and continuing positive impact Tiktok has had on countless businesses, from startups to long-established ones. They have plans for them and are still building tools to support them.
As Sofia Hernandez, Global Head of Business Marketing for TikTok said in a release, “In 2024, we saw brands push creative limits, lean into trends, and connect with their communities in powerful ways, but 2025 is set to take it even further.”
I wonder if any are sending frantic notes to ByteDance headquarters begging them to sell the company (ByteDance has always said it has no interest in a sale) but none of that anxiety was in evidence that evening. They’re just doing what they can now and will react to the changes if and when they come.
Kind of like the 150 million US-based TikTok users
A Beast enters the arena
YouTube showman and over-caffeinated philanthropist Mr. Beast (real name James Stephen Donaldson) has produced several TikToks this week saying that he is buying TikTok. The YouTuber is well known for stunts and this may simply be another one.
As I noted earlier ByteDance has never put the platform up for sale but Donaldson appears undaunted.
@mrbeast
A special guest
Guess who’s coming to President-elect *****’s inauguration on January 20? TikTok CEO Shou Chew has an invite, that’s at least according to sources speaking to NBC News.
If Chew attends the ceremony and festivities, he’ll also likely have some sit-down talks with ***** about the future of the platform. Chew’s arrival a day after the ban takes effect might be problematic but then there is a chance that President Joe ***** might issue an exec order stay of execution as he’s walking out the White House doors.
It’s a lot of moving pieces and it’s still unclear what *****’s invite means and how he really views TikTok. He may still demand a sale to a US company but just give TikTok more time to do it.
Senator Markey has other ideas
The most remarkable thing about the looming TikTok ban is its almost universal support across the political spectrum. This appeared to be the only thing Democrats and Republicans agreed on, plus it had the full support of the White House.
In these sharply divided times (at least in the US), no one agrees about anything – except of course about the “dangers” of TikTok.
There is, however, an almost lone voice of dissent. Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey has been a staunch Tiktok defender and a relatively new on-platform creator. Yesterday, Se. Markey introduced the “Extend the TikTok Deadline Act” in the Senate. No telling if the bill will go anywhere but you’ve gotta love the guy for flying into the wind.
@senmarkey
Leave it to…*****?
Incoming US President Donald ***** has already made his newfound adoration for TikTok clear but now we have evidence that he wants to take an active role in saving the platform.
According to the BBC One of *****’s top advisors, Congressman Mike Waltz, says ***** will step in if the US Supreme Court decides to uphold the ban (we’re still awaiting its decision).
*****’s actions will hinge on a clause in the law that allows TikTok a 90-day extension if they’ve made significant progress in a sale. That determination may be up to ***** who could on Monday after he’s inaugurated make that a priority.
That action, though, will come after the ban takes effect. Does TikTok just hold tight and flout the ban for 24 hours or so and wait for ***** to make the save? Third-party partners might not be comfortable with that. They don’t want to end up paying fines, after all.
Again…so many questions.
A different kind of doom-scroll
I don’t know about the rest of you but my TikTok usage has skyrocketed in recent days. I think I’m subconsciously trying to consume all of it before it’s gone.
This means I am seeing every single goodbye. The angry ones (a lot), the funny ones (a close second), and the heartbreaking sad ones. People crying, wondering if they can rebuild the community elsewhere.
When I talk about TikTok disappearing, a common refrain is, “So what, people will just go elsewhere and soon forget TikTok ever existed.” They’re only partially correct. It is easy to join Instagram and post Reels, or do the same with YouTube Shorts, but community and audience building takes considerable effort and time, sometimes years.
I think back to when Vine (the 6-second video platform bought by Twitter) shut down. It was devastating and, yes, many former Viners ended up on TikTok but it took years for it to feel like a true – and even better – replacement.
If and when TikTok goes dark in the US, there will be a period of mourning. So allow me these last scrolls; I want to have something to remember TikTok by.
On brand
If you can’t keep making TikToks (eventually) you make hay, and by hay, I mean a bit of marketing magic. I noticed at least one savvy brand jumping into the TikTok ban fray with a short but clever take.
Wendy’s, the fast food burger chain, hopped on X (formerly Twitter) with a brief post about the state of two tech franchises.
“Can’t believe we’re getting TikTok ban before gta 6,” posted Wendy’s referring to both the impending ban and our very long wait for Grand Theft Auto 6.
According to the latest reports, the fast-paced open-world game won’t arrive until much later this year. That’s 12 years after the last edition. That long wait is what makes Wendy’s tweet so, so funny.
I’ll be keeping an eye on the socials to see what other brands do.
Can’t believe we’re getting TikTok ban before gta 6January 16, 2025
Tell us how you really feel, Tom
That Senator Markey Act seeking to save TikTok I mentioned earlier was swiftly blocked late Thursday afternoon by another legislator, Senator Tom Cotton, who called TikTok a “Chinese Communist spy app that addicts our kids, harvests their data, targets them with harmful and manipulative content and spreads communist propaganda.”
Clearly Cotton is no fan (though it also sounds like he’s never been on the app). He added this denouement which more else less sealed the fate of Markey’s bill: “Let me be crystal clear, there will be no extensions, no concessions, and no compromises for TikTok”
Republican Senator Tom Cotton blocking an attempt by Senator Ed Markey to extend the deadline for TikTok: Let me be crystal clear, there will be no extensions, no concessions, and no compromises for TikTok pic.twitter.com/XzLPfH755jJanuary 16, 2025
What if we don’t collect?
NBC News is now reporting that the ***** Administration’s plan is to not collect fines when the TikTok ban officially goes into effect on January 19.
This means that while the ban will be real, there will be no penalties to any third party for, say, hosting the app on their platform. Apple’s App Store could keep hosting it without worry. Oracle could keep hosting the data without concern.
If this happens, it leaves time for incoming President ***** to make a new executive order that either gives TikTok an extension or maybe rescinds the whole thing.
None of this is confirmed by White House officials or TikTok. In fact, since ByteDance might still react to the ban going through by pulling its app from US services, *****’s possible actions might not matter.
There’s also the question of the Supreme Court ruling on whether or not the ban violates TikTok’s First Amendment rights. The lack of a penalty would make that potentially moot.
As usual, nothing is certain and the clock is still tick-tocking.
@nbcnews
RedNote continues to have its moment
In the midst of all the TikTok uncertainty – we’re still waiting for the US Supreme Court’s decision on whether to uphold the ban – RedNote continues to be the epicenter of a strange cultural moment.
I’ve downloaded the app and its Trending tab is naturally all about Chinese and American influencers seeing the lighter side of looming ban, and largely mocking its motivations. So-called ‘TikTok refugees’ are greeted by Chinese language lessons and the inevitable reaction videos.
Many US users are openly saying they’re on RedNote out of spite and that their government’s interventions are worthy of trolling. RedNote is definitely an ‘interesting’ place right now, but from what I’ve seen there’s no way it’ll become a TikTok replacement.
The latest noises from the ***** camp suggest they’ll be using the law’s 90-day extension clause (triggered if ByteDance shows it’s moving towards a sale) to prevent TikTok from going dark on January 19. Whether or not that’s actually possible is something we’ll hopefully find out soon…
Justices could rule at 10AM ET
Today’s the day or sort of the day. It’s the US Supreme Court’s last chance to rule on the TikTok ban. The social media company’s chances with the justices were never good. Its First Amendment argument was thin, at best.
Even so, this should be the day if the judges plan to rule. The word could come as early as 10AM ET, and there are now signs that they will do just that. Once the Justices deliver the expected ruling against ByteDance and TikTok, it’s back to options B and C for the platform.
The most likely path forward for TikTok is the ***** Administration’s apparent plan to act like the ban is not in effect and not penalize anyone, including ByteDance.
ByteDance, though, may still pull the app from the App Store until a ban is officially rescinded. And it’s not clear that will ever happen.
The Supreme Court has signaled that it will rule on the TikTok ban at 10 a.m. ET today pic.twitter.com/lBCkWpa1O1January 17, 2025
Back to Google?
You know who might cheer the possible TikTok ban? Google.
Last year, NiemanLab reported that 40% of Gen Z is using TikTok (and Instagram) as their primary search tool. This data apparently came from inside Google.
TikTok has a hold on teens and young adults not just for entertainment. They use it as a search engine to find and learn things and connect with products and even brands. It’s also a news source. Why Google Search when you can TikTok? Why spend time scanning traditional media for news when it can be spoon-fed to you in the form of entertainment?
The loss of TikTok could send Gen Z back to Google but it’s just as likely they’ll find other information sources, though I’m not sure I’d recommend RedNote, despite its sudden rockstar status.
Chris Brownlee, VP of Product at Yext, a brand presence platform company, sent me these thoughts about the future of search and suggestions to brands for discoverability on other platforms:
“Apps like RedNote are reporting a surge in downloads, while many users are turning to Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, Reddit, and review sites as alternative ways to find information. Not forgetting the growing wave of AI-powered search, from Open AI’s SearchGPT to Google’s Gemini.
Even if TikTok goes offline, or the ban is temporary, search behavior is already changing. What continues to be most crucial for brands is that wherever and however consumers ‘find’ them, the information on that platform is accurate.”
Is the chill is fading?
While TikTok executives are exuding extreme chill when it comes to the potential ban, the rank-and-file TikTok employees might be feeling the pressure, at least a little bit.
Jess Puro, a Client Solutions Manager at TikTok posted a short TikTok this week with the caption, “walking into work at TikTok this week…”
In the video, Puro strolls into what appears to be TikTok headquarters in Texas and waves at a coworker who is getting a beverage. Puro says a tentative “Hey” and the coworker offers an equally tentative “hey” back. The next shot is of Puro sitting hugging a TikTok logo plushy while she asks the coworker, “How ya all doin?'”
Her tone is hopeful but there’s something else there, too. Take a look and see what you think while we wait for the SCOTUS ruling.
@jnpuro
The US Supreme Court rules against TikTok
In a largely expected decision, US Supreme Court Justices ruled against TikTok’s efforts to stall or kill the ban based on First Amendment principles.
In their ruling [PDF], the judges wrote: “we conclude that the challenged provisions do not violate petitioners’ First Amendment rights.”
While the decision would appear to leave TikTok and parent company ByteDance out of options, we know that there’s now a flurry of activity to “save” TikTok from the very same people who sought to ban it.
Incoming President Donald ***** wants to save it and could take action as soon as he enters office. Outgoping President Joe *****’s administration now says that they won’t enforce the ban, which means there will be no fines or other actions of TikTok does not immediately comply.
But that doesn’t stop the ban from being a thing and ByteDance from removing the app from US app stores in a fit of understandable pique.
This show is still far from over.